Statistical Tsunami

We are being overrun by statistics, you know. And, to prove my point, 73% agree. You’re right in thinking that I pulled that number out of thin air, but nevertheless, you’d be hard-pressed to claim that such numbers haven’t become the primary means of describing the current state of our lives, be it economic, religious, medical, or any one of a multitude of pigeon-holes.

I can remember when I was first exposed to statistics: as a young boy, three out of four dentists recommended Crest toothpaste. At least that’s what the guy on TV said and who was I to argue? (I used Colgate, by the way, and still do.) I couldn’t help but wonder how many dentists were asked about toothpaste. At least four, I guessed, but even as an unformed thought, the statistic created doubt in my mind about the bigger picture surrounding this seemingly innocuous yet significant number.

Today we are confronted with an ever-increasing spate of statistics that, while providing a better-or-worse barometer, continue to fail in providing the whole picture. Our birthrate is the lowest in 100 years. What about 101 years? Or 125? Did someone pick 100 years to prove a point about the birthrate or to create a false impression? Housing numbers are dismal. Some statistics are the worst on record and, because of that, are hard to argue with. Others are limited in time frame, though, and that lessens their value.

Opinion polls are other forms of gathering statistics. Some may be aware of my aversion to these creatures and I’ll spare the rest of you a segue into that arena. Suffice it to say that, while we get numbers claiming to represent the mood of the citizenry, we know nothing about the questions asked or those who responded and their personal agendas. We’ve all used language to pose a question in such a way that pretty much ensures a specific answer. Do we trust pollsters to avoid such chicanery or accept the fact that their paycheck comes from those interested in certain outcomes?

The sporting world is perhaps the most awash in numbers and stats. And I can’t help but think that, as I write this, someone is coming up with a new statistic to further muddy the water of an enterprise that comes down to a simple final score. Perhaps the most ludicrous in all of sport is that of batting average: Ted Williams and his batting average of .400 is the peak that today’s ballplayers strive to reach. You know, of course, that this number reflects a success rate at the plate of only 40%.

“Welcome aboard today’s flight, folks. This is your Captain speaking and I’m happy to announce that I’ve just been awarded my airline’s highest honor by successfully completing 40% of my flights.” Kinda gives you a nice, warm feeling, doesn’t it? Or not. Would you select a surgeon based on this lofty number? Or a lawyer? I doubt it. Yet baseball awards the batting championship based on a number that falls even lower and represents an overall failure at the plate.

Can we escape this flood of numbers? I doubt it, but we can become more suspicious of the intent behind them rather than accepting them in a sound bite designed to shape our perceptions at the cost of the reality. And the more convoluted they seem and the more limitations they include should serve only to heighten that skepticism. My only substantive suggestion is to Major League Baseball: how about a “Successful-At-Bat” statistic. This would include sacrifice flies, moving runners along, and other strategies that signify the correlation between strategy and execution. I can only hope that this number would lie somewhere above 50% and more fairly represent the hitter’s success when holding a bat.

The Rear View Mirror

A co-worker of mine passed away last week. She and I were close, so it was a priority for me to attend her memorial service. It was held in a Catholic church as she was an Irish Catholic all of her life. Now, churches and I have little in common, but that is not to say I  loathe being in one. In this case, I abstained from the trappings of responding to the priest, etc. Of course, most times I had no idea of how to respond to begin with. Communion? Nope.

The priest delivered the sermon, if you will, and in it he discussed the difference between accomplishment and promise and how it applies to someone who dies before an age that is considered appropriate by society. This comparison struck me to the point where I took out a paper and pen to jot it down lest I forget it.

Think about it: the time we spend appreciating our accomplishments is minor when compared to the time we spend in planning our next set of goals. Our promise, or potential, overrides any past successes as though they are either unimportant or simply a sign of better things to come. The problem lies in the fact that, at some point, there are no future plans because our future no longer exists. We have toiled and striven and dreamed of greater things only to find them ultimately unattainable while ignoring the magnitude of past victories.

Take a moment and think about your life and how someone might describe it if you were to die today. No, you didn't get to millionaire status, but you raised a wonderful family, didn't you? Or, perhaps, your private life was overshadowed by your career progression. Regardless, we've all fallen short in some of our lifelong aspirations while far exceeding our wildest dreams in others. But we have a hard time in embracing the positives and, instead, seem to dwell on our failures. Maybe that’s why we avoid looking back in the first place. Anyway, why wait until we die to savor the things in our past that are noteworthy? Part of the human condition, I guess, but a part that fails to serve our best interests.

I suggest a better balance between our looking ahead for greater returns and enjoying that which we have already accomplished. I see nothing wrong in admitting that, in some ways, our potential has not yet been reached while in others, we've so much for which to be grateful. Resting on our laurels need not be a full-time job, nor should it be, but a little reminiscing and reveling in our glory days may well better prepare us for the challenges that lie ahead. And, as my regular readers know all too well, I’m not suggesting that we lower our expectations. Rather, a look back might remind us that it was a high expectation that contributed greatly in getting us to where we are now.

The Army coined the phrase “be all you can be” as a recruiting motto and I fully support its intent in the greater scheme of things. But take a glance in your personal rear view mirror from time to time and take pride in all that you’ve become.

Uncivil Discourse

We are an angry society these days. I’ve suspected that for a while and the events of the past week have only served to reinforce my suspicions. Probably the most famous (or infamous) in recent days is the Jet Blue Flight Attendant, Steven Slater, upon whose back, apparently, the final straw was placed. Spouting epithets and expletives, he chided a passenger after gate arrival and then chose to deplane via an emergency escape slide after securing two “roadies” in the form of beer taken from the aircraft’s galley. Hero or goat, his behavior exemplifies a workforce that sees itself as underpaid, overworked, and under-appreciated. Other, more serious, examples are abundant where, instead of “take this job and shove it”, it’s “if you take my job I’ll shoot you”.

Co-starring in this week’s “hit” parade is the McDonald’s customer who, upon learning that the hour was too early for McNuggets, got out of her car and commenced striking the drive-thru employee through the open window. And when the employee moved out of range, the deranged driver threw a bottle through the glass window. Somewhat over the top, wouldn’t you say?

OK, so we’re agreed that society has some issues. These complaints have boiled over, quite understandably, into the political arena where the left and the right have found their respective niches within the airwaves. Both abound with vitriol, hyperbole, and all-around emotional reports designed to sully the reputation of those associated with the other side. And society, who is already at the boiling point, eats this up. Anything’s better than “them” winning the election, by god. To hell with ideas and agendas.

Incumbents are in danger of losing their elected positions to neophytes with absolutely no understanding of the political animal and its characteristics. The idea that “we’ve got to change Washington and, if you elect me, we can get’er done” certainly strikes a visceral chord. Clean house...throw the bums out...spend less, do more: whatever your favorite slogan, it is nothing more than an oversimplified rallying cry. And while it may bring out the voters, which is a good thing, the votes cast will be done with an emotional purpose rather than an intellectual one and that is a bad thing.

If you’re married or involved in any long-term relationship, you understand a bit about politics. One must pick the proper battle because today’s “opponent” may be tomorrow’s ally. The notion that one politico from one district can step into the Congress and whip it into shape is naive. And the farther from the middle of the political road one is, the harder it will be to get anything done.

No, while I may agree that partisan politics has taken over the process, it seems to me that we need more moderates, not less. Compromise lies somewhere in the middle of any debate. Standing in opposite corners makes discussion difficult, at best. And without this give and take, progress is hard to find. Of course, what with it being the 21st century and the “all about me” mentality, it’s easy to see why there is a dearth of compromise and progress within most legislative bodies.

Many of us are passionate about subjects that fall within our political undertakings. I see nothing wrong with this and encourage it through debate and discussion. But to simply fold one’s arms and take an unmoving position denies all participants of any kind of progress towards a better day. And the ensuing stalemate only adds to our anger. I can only hope that calm, educated voters carry the day this November. If the erudite give way to the erratic, more troubles lie ahead, to be sure.

Job Security

The continuing high rate of unemployment is proving to be a thorn in most everyone’s side. From the top to the bottom, we look to see signs of a rejuvenated job market. The President and his administration are drawing particularly heavy flack for this situation and I’m at a loss to explain it. In one poll, citizens rail against an intrusive federal government, but in the next, they want Washington to do more in getting a paycheck back in their hands. Typical “both ways” mentality that I’ve addressed in the past.

Some jobs are gone for good due to the global economy or perhaps finding a better way to accomplish the same thing. There’s not much we can do about that except wait for other, new industries to rise from the ashes of their predecessors. But what about the continuing concerns that have laid off a higher percentage of labor than the Great Depression while amassing corporate profits that eclipse those of the same dismal period? Let me talk to you as an employer might talk to his employees:

I run a business and you are needed to fulfill my goal of financial success. I know, there’s that thing about making the world a better place. How about if we compromise and I’ll make the world a better place...for me. If you get ahead, too, so be it. I’m constantly looking for ways to lower my costs while maximizing my profits. You, sorry to say, are a cost and it is in my best interest in minimizing your numbers. True, there will be a point of diminishing returns, but I’ve not yet reached it nor do I expect to, what with a buying public willing to sacrifice quality in order to save a buck.

The recession in which we are currently mired has proven to be a boon for me. It gave me a reason to cut back on you employees. This reduction created such a fear in those remaining that productivity soared to never imagined heights. Sure I want to be liked, but to be feared seems to be a better work incentive. And I like you at times, but I’d fire off a “Dear Colleague” letter if I could figure out a way to do what I have to do with less of you. Hell, they’re outsourcing lawyers and accountants to India. What makes you think that you’re so special? With fewer employees doing more work I cannot see why I’d bring in more worker bees unless I was to increase the size of my operation. That’s OK, too, so long as the productivity remains high and my profit increases.

Now, there is a possibility of the tax cuts enacted by my good old friend, W., not being renewed. This is bad for my bottom line so it behooves me to paint a bleak picture if they fade away. I’ll say that, without those continued tax breaks, I’ll decide against adding jobs to my payroll and the rate of unemployment will remain at an unacceptable level. (We both know that I’m not going to add jobs anyway unless it helps me.) What’ve I got to lose, anyway? If the cuts are renewed, good for me and bad for you. And, if they are not renewed, I’ll pass along the costs to my customers to make up for my personal loss. Then I’ll ask you to work harder due to increased costs. Still good for me and still bad for you.

I can tie my argument to the deficit, too. If they let me keep my tax cuts, I’ll “promise” to re-invest in my community which will then pay more taxes to lower the deficit. I won’t mention, however, the fact that my definition of community probably differs significantly from theirs (or yours). They might fall for it, too, in spite of the fact that the only way they can guarantee some money coming in to the federal coffers is to take it from our income through taxation. That fear thing again might just do the trick and maintain my current cash flow.

Face it: your fear of losing your job is the lynchpin in my strategy. Once you start to realize that I need you as much as you need me, I’m pretty much screwed. That’s why I’m also against the movement that might make it easier for your to unionize. An organized workforce replaces fear with confidence and I see no reason why I should embrace such tomfoolery.

Enough, already. It’s past time for you to get back to work and for me to figure out how to whittle a few more positions out of the payroll. You’d better bear down...you might be next!

Missing Out

There was a time when the information highway consisted of a two-lane country road. That time has given way to an eight-lane expressway where every tidbit of news, sports, weather, and other associated minutiae can be accessed from one minute to the next. We are no longer tied to our desk or our lap: smart phones allow us to remain on the cutting edge of what’s happening and thus avoid missing out on anything.

This aversion to missing out on anything that might be happening anywhere at anytime has contributed greatly to the hectic lifestyle many of us seek to avoid. We have eschewed the gaps that once existed between our doses of information for a never-ending stream of bits and bytes. Those gaps allowed us to concentrate on the people and interests in our lives without sacrificing our more worldly awareness. No longer, though: chatting, people watching, or any other personal sampling of that which passes in the course of a day has been replaced by email, twitter, facebook, and such. We can also establish electronic alerts so we can interrupt our current electronic interaction to see the latest, breaking report on the ball game or the flood or the stock market.

But that’s all good, you know, because we don’t want to miss out on anything, no sir. I hate to break it to you, but you’re missing out on a far larger part of life by not missing out on the latest piece of information. Your life, to be exact. You know: family, neighbors, hobbies, chores. The whole shebang that you lose sight of when concentrating on the tiny screen in your hands or the monitor on your desk (or lap). These other, more substantive pursuits don’t have off buttons, nor can they be rewound or paused. They continue on, uninterrupted, regardless of your participation and anything that occurs while you are pre-occupied is lost forever.

We only have so many hours in a day and must choose how that time is best spent. Make no mistake: no one avoids missing out on something. It comes down to priorities, I suppose. Miss out on the latest story or miss out on living your life with your loved ones and the activities you cherish most. What with 24/7 news and sports channels, it seems that one could catch up on the activities of the world much easier than catching up on the activities of those who should carry a far greater import. There is an additional benefit in turning into a rest stop on the information superhighway: the pace of our lives slows. Not a lot, perhaps, but to a point where a deep breath is a possibility and who doesn’t need one of those now and then? Go on...give it a try: find that OFF button and give it a good, hard push. You might be surprised at how good it feels. And maybe even more surprised to discover what you’ve been missing.